Carvana Coverage - 5/12/2025 - 5/18/2025
Intro:
I'm trying out a new weekly format to bring you the latest on Carvana. Let me know if you enjoy this new approach by dropping a comment below or replying to this email. Your feedback is much appreciated!
Carvana (CVNA) Data Weekly Analysis: 5/12-5/18/2025
Trailing Week Sales: 10,700 (-4, -0.04% WoW) (+2,884, +36.89% YoY)
Trailing Week Orders: 15,320 (+1,902, +14.17% WoW)
Trailing Week Listings: 13,991
Q2 Unit Run Rate: 143,396 (+41% YoY)
Inventory as of 5/18/2025: 52,252 (+1,082 WoW)
Average Inventory Price 5/18/2025: $26,313 (+$236 WoW)
Trailing Week ASP: $25,646 (+$142 WoW)
Carvana demonstrated a mixed but generally positive operational picture in the week ending May 18, 2025. While trailing week sales saw a marginal dip of 0.04% week-over-week to 10,700 units, they remained significantly elevated year-over-year, up 36.89%.
A standout metric was the surge in trailing week orders, which jumped 14.17% from the previous week to 15,320. Q2 unit run rate of 143,396, indicates a 41% increase compared to the same quarter last year thus far.
Inventory levels also grew, with 52,252 units available as of May 18th, an increase of 1,082 units week-over-week. Alongside this inventory growth, average prices continued to climb. The average inventory price rose by $236 to $26,313, while the average selling price (ASP) for the trailing week increased by $142 to $25,646. The number of new listings for the week stood at 13,991.
Overall, Carvana saw slightly lower year-over-year unit growth, but improving demand from orders and inventory build, implying more consumer confidence.
Used Car Data Weekly Analysis: 5/12-5/18/2025
Carvana Average Inventory: 52,807.5
CarMax Average Inventory: 76,902.17
Unweighted Mix Adjusted Price Difference (CVNA vs KMX): -$615.60
CVNA Mix Adjusted Weighted Price Difference: -$1167.17
KMX Mix Adjusted Weighted Price Difference: -$810.88
Carvana Top Sold Vehicles:
Make: Chevrolet (11.19%)
Model: Tesla Model 3 (2.48%)
CarMax Top Sold Vehicles:
Make: Toyota (12.00%)
Model: Honda Civic (2.48%)
Carvana Top Inventory Vehicles:
Make: Chevrolet (11.04%)
Model: Ram 1500 Crew Cab (1.73%)
CarMax Top Inventory Vehicle:
Make: Toyota (11.23%)
Model: Nissan Rogue (2.22%)
Carvana Inventory Average Vehicle Year: 2020.24
CarMax Inventory Average Vehicle Year: 2020.15
The average vehicle year for both retailers was remarkably similar, with Carvana at 2020.24 and CarMax at 2020.15, indicating both are offering relatively recent model years to consumers.
In terms of pricing, Carvana's vehicles were listed lower on average. The unweighted mix-adjusted price difference showed Carvana's listings priced $615.60 below CarMax's. When applying a weighted mix adjustment, this gap widened, with Carvana's prices $1167.17 lower, while CarMax's mix-adjusted weighted price was $810.88 higher than at Carvana. This suggests Carvana is positioning itself as a more aggressively priced option while also maintaining better margins.
Consumer preferences, as reflected in top-selling vehicles, showed some overlap and some distinctions. Chevrolet was the top-selling make for Carvana (11.19%), while Toyota led at CarMax (12.00%). Interestingly, the Tesla Model 3 was Carvana's top-selling model (2.48%), mirroring the Honda Civic's popularity at CarMax (2.48%).
Looking at inventory composition, Chevrolet also topped Carvana's stock (11.04%), with the Ram 1500 Crew Cab being its most stocked model (1.73%). Toyota was the most prevalent make in CarMax's inventory (11.23%), and the Nissan Rogue was its most common model (2.22%).
Carvana (CVNA) Other KPI’s: 5/12-5/18/2025
5/16/2025 2yr Yield: 3.98% (+10bps WoW from May 9, 2025)
5/18/2025 CVNA Job Postings: 1196 (+42 WoW from May 9, 2025)
5/18/2025 Sell-Side Average Recommendation (Zacks data as of May 17-23): Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) of 1.87 (between Strong Buy and Buy).
5/18/2025 Sell-Side Average Target Price (Zacks data as of May 17-23): Approximately $305.31.
Daily News:
Summary:
The week of May 12-18, 2025, for Carvana was characterized by significant insider stock sales (including by the CEO and other executives) and Q1-end holding reductions by institutional investors like Millennium Management and CAS Investment Partners. This contrasted with continued analyst optimism, notably a price target increase from Morgan Stanley. Operationally, Carvana extended its PPA Tour sponsorship, unveiled a special NASCAR paint scheme for Jimmie Johnson, and launched same-day delivery in Denver. The stock price exhibited volatility but closed the week slightly higher. The broader environment saw a temporary US-China trade tariff truce (though key auto tariffs remained) and a Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating.
Monday, May 12, 2025
SEC Filings:
Form 4 by Michael E Maroone (Director): Disclosed sale of 9,000 shares on May 9 at various prices ($276.89 - $279.06), totaling approximately $2.46 million.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $280.56
High: $299.00
Low: $278.49
Close: $293.06
Volume: 5,890,000
2y Treasury News:
The 2-year yield rose 0.047 percentage points.
Sell Side News:
None specific to Carvana found for this day.
Other Relevant News:
US-China 90-day trade tariff truce announced (effective May 14), but the 25% US tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts remained.
Toyota teased a new model reveal for May 20.
Tuesday, May 13, 2025
SEC Filings:
Form 4 by Paul W. Breaux (Officer): Sale of 30,000 shares on May 13 at $298.00, totaling $8.94 million (10b5-1 plan).
Form 4 by Ira J. Platt (Director): Disclosed distribution of 24,959 shares from a trust on May 13.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $297.28
High: $311.88
Low: $296.68
Close: $305.52
Volume: 6,480,000
2y Treasury News:
Yields fluctuated; general news highlighted US Treasury yields climbing mid-week due to Fed minutes concerns.
Sell Side News:
Zacks published "Brokers Suggest Investing in Carvana (CVNA)".
Company News/Press Releases:
Carvana announced a multi-year extension of its title sponsorship with the Professional Pickleball Association (PPA) Tour.
Other Relevant News:
Nasdaq.com article recapped CVNA insider trades, hedge fund activity, and analyst ratings.
MarketBeat reported Ensign Peak Advisors increased its CVNA stake in Q4 2024 (news published May 13).
Wednesday, May 14, 2025
SEC Filings:
Form 4 by Ernest C. Garcia III (CEO): Sale of 10,000 shares on May 14 (various prices ~$302-$304.50), totaling approx. $3.04 million (10b5-1 plan; filed May 16).
Form 4 by J Danforth Quayle (Director): Sale of 11,614 shares on May 14 at avg $304.24, totaling $3.53 million; also exercised options (filed May 15).
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $302.64
High: $304.01
Low: $293.73
Close: $297.40
Volume: 3,290,000
2y Treasury News:
The 2-year yield was reported at its highest since this date when it later rose to 4.016% on May 21.
Sell Side News:
Moomoo.com reported on various analyst ratings and price target adjustments around the Q1 earnings period.
Company News/Press Releases:
Carvana unveiled Jimmie Johnson's 700th start tribute paint scheme for the Coca-Cola 600.
Carvana launched same-day vehicle delivery in the greater Denver area.
Other Relevant News:
Zacks.com published multiple articles on CVNA's stock momentum and 52-week high.
US-China tariff truce effective.
Thursday, May 15, 2025
SEC Filings Disclosed:
Form 4 by Ernest C. Garcia III (CEO): Sale of 10,000 shares on May 15 (various prices ~$302-$304), totaling approx. $3.03 million (10b5-1 plan; filed May 16).
Form 13F-HR by Millennium Management LLC: Disclosed ownership of 301,573 CVNA shares as of March 31, 2025, a 27% decrease from Q4 2024.
Schedule 13G/A by CAS Investment Partners, LLC: Disclosed ownership of 5,685,029 CVNA shares (4.2%) as of March 31, 2025, an 11.91% decrease.
Form ABS-EE (Exhibits Submission for Asset-Backed Securities Offerings) filed by Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2024-P4.54
Form 10-D (Asset-Backed Issuer Distribution Report) filed by Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2024-P3.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $299.75
High: $304.14
Low: $294.22
Close: $299.89
Volume: 3,680,000
2y Treasury News:
The 2-year yield reported to have closed above 4% for the first time since late March.
Sell Side News:
Morgan Stanley maintained "Overweight" rating, raised price target from $280 to $290.
Nasdaq.com article: "Carvana (CVNA): Should You Buy It Now Given Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?".
Company News/Press Releases:
Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2024-P2 filed Form 10-D.
Other Relevant News:
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary May): 50.8 (Forecast: 53.1).
April Retail Sales data released.
Friday, May 16, 2025
SEC Filings Disclosed:
Form 4 by Ryan S. Keeton (Officer): Sale of 13,137 shares on May 16 at $300.00, totaling approx. $3.94 million (10b5-1 plan).
Form 4 by Ernest C. Garcia III (CEO): Sale of 10,000 shares on May 16 (avg. price ~$300.15), totaling approx. $3.00 million (10b5-1 plan; filed May 20).
CapEdge listed Form 4 filings for Thomas Taira, Mark W. Jenkins, Daniel J. Gill, and Benjamin E. Huston.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $294.50
High: $306.98
Low: $293.06
Close: $305.21
Volume: 3,760,000
2y Treasury News:
The 2-year Treasury note ended the week at 3.98%.
Sell Side News:
Nasdaq.com article noted a "Moderate Buy" consensus for CVNA.
Other Relevant News:
AInvest article: "Carvana's Insider Sell-Offs Amid Rally: Opportunity or Warning?".
Moody's downgraded U.S. sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1.
Saturday, May 17, 2025 & Sunday, May 18, 2025
SEC Filings: N/A
Press Releases: N/A
Stock Price: N/A
2y Treasury News: N/A
Other Relevant News:
Nasdaq.com (May 17/18): "Will Carvana Stock Keep Soaring to New Highs or is the Rally Overdone?".
Zacks.com (May 17): "Here's Why Carvana (CVNA) is a Strong Growth Stock".
Upcoming Potential Catalysts (As of May 18, 2025):
Earnings:
Date: Estimated July 21-30, 2025 (some sources point to July 30).
Q2 2025 EPS Estimate as of mid-May: ~$1.00 - $1.10. (Nasdaq.com data as of May 26 showed consensus EPS forecast for Q2 2025 increased to $1.11).
Q2 2025 EPS Upward Revisions in last month (Nasdaq data as of May 26): 4.
Q2 2025 EPS Downward Revisions in last month (Nasdaq data as of May 26): 0.
Q2 2025 Retail Units Sold Guidance: Carvana expects a sequential increase from Q1's 133,898 units. One source projected 138,000 units. Based on Clarity Markets data, run rate Q2 units imply 143,396 unit sales
Relevant Industry Earnings:
KMX: CarMax Inc. estimated reporting date June 20, 2025.
LAD: Lithia Motors estimated reporting period July 25-31, 2025.
AN: AutoNation estimated reporting period July 23-30, 2025.
ALLY: Ally Financial estimated reporting period July 16-21, 2025.
Conferences:
Carvana to Present at William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference: CFO Mark Jenkins, Wednesday, June 4, 2025.
Macro:
FOMC Meetings: June 17-18, 2025; July 29-30, 2025.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI): May data due June 11, 2025; June data due July 15, 2025.
US Producer Price Index (PPI): May data due June 12, 2025; June data due July 16, 2025.
U.S. Retail Sales: May data due June 17, 2025; June data due July 17, 2025.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Final May data on May 30, 2025; Preliminary June data on June 13, 2025.
Employment Situation (Jobs Report): May data due June 6, 2025; June data due July 3, 2025.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Q1 2025 (Second Estimate) on May 29, 2025; Q1 2025 (Third Estimate) on June 26, 2025; Q2 2025 (Advance Estimate) on July 30, 2025.
Industry Releases:
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: Data for May typically released in early June; June data in early July.
Other Catalysts:
Automotive Tariff decisions (e.g., US-China tariff truce expiry ~Aug 10-12, 2025).
Significant macro releases, 13-F releases.
News Mentioning CVNA 5/12-5/18/2025:
Cabot Top Ten Trader (May 27 issue, reflecting on prior weeks): Featured CVNA with a buy range of $290-$303.
Nasdaq.com (May 13): "$CVNA stock is up 5% today. Here's what we see in our data" - recapped trading, insider activity, hedge funds, and analyst ratings.
Nasdaq.com (May 17-18): "Will Carvana Stock Keep Soaring to New Highs or is the Rally Overdone?" - discussed YTD gains, Q1 results, and Zacks Rank.
Zacks.com (May 13): "Brokers Suggest Investing in Carvana (CVNA)" - highlighted favorable ABR.
Zacks.com (May 14): Multiple articles on CVNA's stock momentum and 52-week high.
Zacks.com (May 17): "Here's Why Carvana (CVNA) is a Strong Growth Stock".
AInvest (May 16): "Carvana's Insider Sell-Offs Amid Rally: Opportunity or Warning?" - analyzed insider selling, valuation, debt, and risks.
Sports Business Journal / Auto Remarketing (May 13-16): Covered Carvana's PPA Tour title sponsorship extension.
Hedge Fund CVNA Transactions (Filings Reported May 12-18, 2025):
Millennium Management LLC: Filed 13F-HR on May 15, disclosing ownership of 301,573 shares as of March 31, 2025, a 27% decrease (111,528 shares) from Q4 2024.
CAS Investment Partners, LLC: Filed Schedule 13G/A on May 15, reporting ownership of 5,685,029 shares (4.20%) as of March 31, 2025, an 11.91% decrease from its prior filing.
Ensign Peak Advisors Inc.: News reported on May 13 that the firm had increased its CVNA position by 32.9% during Q4 2024, holding 41,230 shares.
Other Mentions (from Nasdaq.com, reflecting Q1 or earlier activity): Morgan Stanley reportedly removed 3.8M shares (-72.8%) in Q1 2025. Lone Pine Capital LLC added 2.3M shares (new position) in Q1 2025. Thrive Capital Management, LLC added 2.2M shares (new position) in Q4 2024.
Any Additional News:
OEM Updates & EV Market Shifts: Ford continued focus on hybrids; GM L87 engine recall discussions; Toyota teased new RAV4.
Relevancy: OEM strategies impact new/used car supply and demand.
Tariff Landscape: US-China trade truce (eff. May 14) reduced many tariffs but kept the 25% U.S. tariff on imported vehicles/parts.
Relevancy: Auto tariffs can keep new imported vehicle prices elevated, potentially bolstering used vehicle demand.
Macroeconomic Factors: Moody's downgraded U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 (May 16); April CPI showed YoY inflation at 2.3%; Preliminary May Consumer Sentiment dipped.
Relevancy: Impacts borrowing costs, consumer spending, and overall market uncertainty.
This is great. Maybe can swap out the generic Zacks articles for some industry rag pieces like CBT news and monitoring developments in the AV arena?