Carvana Weekly Update 5/26/2025-6/1/2025
and some commentary
Below is the second iteration of my attempts at CVNA automated coverage. Lots of tinkering with prompts/context loading. I also had it cut out some of the “noisier” news sources like Zack’s or random articles discussing insider sales that were already covered.
In the future I’m thinking of providing more graphs/visuals as well as expanding on market expectations in the catalysts section. It’d likely be helpful for example to have job postings tracking beyond just WoW, YTD 2yr yield and comps vs priors, etc. The article mentions S&P Global prelim ratings on their ABS transaction, so some analysis would likely be nice there as another example. If there’s anything that would be particularly helpful, feel free to let me know.
Unfortunately this coverage of most recent week sales will not be something I’m freely updating consistently as it includes alternative data from our Clarity coverage. Not quite sure yet how exactly we end up structuring everything, we may end up having 1 month trailing reports be free similar to our data coverage, there may be some small fee, tbd.
The goal here is to provide a ton of high quality content covering anything from weekly and daily metrics to higher level earnings reviews, proxy analysis, 10K reviews, etc. In the coming weeks you will very likely be seeing things like that for CVNA posted here. We’re tentatively going to do similar things for Google and Tesla next. If you have any feedback on any of these posts, please do reach out.
I want to put a professional analyst in your pocket for any ticker you can imagine, but baby steps.
Carvana (CVNA) Data Weekly Analysis: 5/26/2025 - 6/1/2025
Trailing Week Sales: 10,720 (-287, -3% WoW) (+3,068, +40% YoY)
Trailing Week Orders: 13,971 (-986, -7% WoW)
Trailing Week Listings: 10,365
Q2 Unit Run Rate: 142,827 (+41% YoY)
Inventory as of 6/1/2025: 50,140 (-1,898 WoW)
Average Inventory Price 6/1/2025: $26,580 (+$200 WoW)
Trailing Week ASP: $25,811 (+$127 WoW)
Average Delivery Estimate: 4.40 days (-0.15 WoW)
Used Car Data Weekly Analysis: 5/26-6/1/2025
Carvana Average Inventory: 51,434
CarMax Average Inventory: 73,018
Unweighted Mix Adjusted Price Difference (CVNA vs KMX): $-783.50
CVNA Mix Adjusted Weighted Price Difference: $-1,492.53
KMX Mix Adjusted Weighted Price Difference: $-999.98
Carvana Top Sold Vehicle: Chevrolet Malibu (4.2%)
CarMax Top Sold Vehicle: Honda Civic (2.7%)
Carvana Top Inventory Vehicle: Chevrolet Malibu (7.6%)
CarMax Top Inventory Vehicle: Nissan Rogue (2.3%)
Carvana Inventory Average Vehicle Year: 2020.44
CarMax Inventory Average Vehicle Year: 2020.21
Carvana (CVNA) Other KPI’s: 5/26/2025-6/1/2025
6/1/2025 2yr Yield: 3.898% (-9.5 bps WoW)
6/1/2025 CVNA Job Postings: 1201 (-48 WoW)
6/1/2025 Average Recommendation: Moderate Buy
6/1/2025 Average Target Price: $275.65
Daily News: 5/26/2025-6/1/2025
Summary: The week for Carvana was marked by substantial insider stock sales from top executives and a major shareholder, all conducted under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. Despite the heavy selling volume, Carvana's stock price continued its upward trend, closing the week higher. Operationally, the company announced the expansion of its same-day delivery service to the Denver area. The financial landscape saw a favorable dip in the 2-year Treasury yield. A notable market development was the launch of a new 2X leveraged ETF tracking Carvana (CVNX), signaling significant trader interest. Broader industry news included concerns about OEM production due to potential mineral shortages and ongoing discussions about the impact of tariffs on vehicle prices.
Monday, May 26, 2025 (Memorial Day)
SEC Filings: None reported due to the U.S. market holiday.
Stock Price (CVNA): U.S. markets were closed.
2y Treasury News: U.S. Treasury markets were closed.
Other Relevant News: Volvo Cars announced job cuts, citing high costs, a slowdown in EV demand, and uncertainty around trade tariffs.
Tuesday, May 27, 2025
SEC Filings: No new SEC filings directly pertaining to Carvana were prominently reported.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $316.90
High: $323.13
Low: $313.00
Close: $320.31
Volume: 3,510,000
2y Treasury News: The 2-year Treasury yield was reported at 3.96%.
Sell Side News: A Nasdaq article analyzed Carvana's stock surge, pointing to strong Q1 results, cost-cutting measures, and potential benefits from tariffs on new vehicles.
Company News/Press Releases: Carvana announced that CFO Mark Jenkins would present at the William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 4, 2025.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
SEC Filings:
A Form 4 was filed for Chief Product Officer Daniel J. Gill, reporting the sale of 32,500 shares for approximately $10.4 million.
A Form 144 was filed by Officer Paul Breaux, indicating an intent to sell 20,000 shares.
A Form 144 was filed by the Daniel & Lian Gill Family Trust, signaling an intent to sell 32,500 shares.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $323.57
High: $323.57
Low: $315.66
Close: $319.65
Volume: 2,100,000
2y Treasury News: The 2-year yield rose, with reports showing it at 3.96% to 4.009%.
Company News/Press Releases: Carvana announced the expansion of its same-day vehicle delivery service to the Denver area.
Thursday, May 29, 2025
SEC Filings: A Form 4 was filed by CEO Ernest C. Garcia III detailing the sale of 10,000 shares at an average price of $318.55, for a total of approximately $3.185 million, as part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $318.08
High: $327.75
Low: $316.19
Close: $327.16
Volume: 4,460,000
2y Treasury News: The yield fell to 3.92%, its largest single-day drop since May 15.
Other Relevant News: Defiance ETFs launched CVNX, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long CVNA ETF, designed to provide 2X leveraged daily exposure to Carvana's stock.
Friday, May 30, 2025
SEC Filings: A heavy day for insider transaction disclosures, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans:
CFO Mark W. Jenkins sold 51,380 shares at an average price of $326.03, totaling approximately $16.75 million.
CEO Ernest C. Garcia III reported further sales, including 3,086 shares valued at approximately $1 million.
10% shareholder Ernest C. Garcia II sold 50,000 shares at a weighted average price of $325.1554, for a total of approximately $16.26 million.
A Form 144 was filed by Ernest C. Garcia II, indicating a proposal to sell 500,000 shares valued at approximately $159.8 million at the time of filing.
Stock Price (CVNA):
Open: $326.24
High: $331.97
Low: $316.41
Close: $331.30
Volume: 3,140,000
2y Treasury News: The yield closed the week at 3.89%.
Other Relevant News: The University of Michigan's final May Consumer Sentiment Index was unchanged from April at 52.2.
Saturday, May 31, 2025 & Sunday, June 1, 2025
Other Relevant News: Weekend financial news coverage analyzed the significant insider selling activity at Carvana that was disclosed during the week.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts
Earnings:
Carvana's Q2 2025 earnings are expected around July 30, 2025.
The consensus EPS estimate for Q2 is $1.11.
Competitor earnings reports: CarMax (KMX) around June 20, Lithia Motors (LAD) around July 16, and AutoNation (AN) around July 23-30.
Conferences:
CFO Mark Jenkins is scheduled to present at the William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 4, 2025.
Macroeconomic Data:
Employment Situation (Jobs Report): May data on June 6, 2025.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): May data on June 11, 2025.
Producer Price Index (PPI): May data on June 12, 2025.
U.S. Retail Sales: May data on June 17, 2025.
FOMC Meeting: June 17-18, 2025.
Industry Releases:
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: May data is expected around June 6, 2025.
Other Potential Catalysts:
Ongoing developments regarding U.S. automotive tariffs.
Q2 2025 13-F filings disclosing institutional holdings are due by mid-August 2025.
News Mentioning CVNA 5/26/2025-6/1/2025
Carvana Press Release (5/28/2025): The company officially announced the extension of its same-day vehicle delivery service to customers in the greater Denver metropolitan area. The release highlighted how the operational enhancement leverages Carvana's regional logistics and reconditioning capabilities to improve convenience for local buyers and sellers.
GlobeNewswire (5/29/2025): A press release announced the launch of a new exchange-traded fund, CVNX, by Defiance ETFs. The fund is designed to provide twice the daily leveraged exposure to Carvana's stock, signaling significant market interest and potentially leading to increased trading activity.
S&P Global (6/4/2025): In an announcement just after the reporting week, S&P Global Ratings assigned preliminary ratings to Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025-P2. This development points to Carvana's continued access to the asset-backed securities (ABS) market, a vital funding source for its auto loan business.
Hedge Fund CVNA Transactions 5/26/2025-6/1/2025
No new Form 13F or 13G filings from major hedge funds were reported during the week.
News reports on May 26 highlighted that smaller institutions, such as Brucke Financial Inc., had initiated or increased positions in Carvana during Q4 2024.
The most significant institutional product development was the launch of the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long CVNA ETF (CVNX), reflecting market demand for trading instruments tied to the stock.
Additional News
OEM Updates & EV Market Shifts: Reports indicated that Suzuki and Ford faced production halts in late May due to shortages of components linked to China's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports. This could reduce new car availability, potentially increasing demand for used vehicles. Competitor CarMax announced new initiatives to enhance the used EV buying experience.
Tariff Landscape: A Yale Budget Lab report suggested that existing and potential tariffs could increase average new car prices by about 5%. Higher new car prices can make used cars a more attractive alternative, potentially boosting Carvana's sales but also increasing its vehicle acquisition costs.
Used Car Market Trends: Cox Automotive reported that while retail sales remained strong year-over-year, momentum softened in May, with used vehicle prices trending downward. Conversely, an Edmunds Q1 2025 report noted that structural supply constraints for lightly used vehicles were supporting higher prices for late-model cars.