Q2 Earnings Forecasts - This time with KPI's
Hi all, will keep it short and sweet.
As previously mentioned the Q1 2024 earnings forecast with Clarity was quite successful, averaging a 3.5% difference from actual results vs 4.7% for sell side. After some website updates and the like, looking to try that experiment again for Q2, but with a slight twist.
This time around I’m going to try asking questions about KPI’s for each of the Mag-7 as well as CVNA/CDLX. Things like “AWS growth rate” or “CVNA retail sales” are highly covered KPI’s subject to much debate, so it’d be very interesting if users can also predict those better than sell side.
Some KPI’s like CVNA’s are also covered via very accurate alternative data that I mention often as the basis for some trades (which have done quite well). For whatever reason the data just isn’t always priced in which can be quite lucrative. As a result, for this go around the top 3 forecasters will also get a 1 year free subscription to .
(If you’d like to participate, here’s a link: https://www.clarity-markets.com/predict)
Beyond providing an incentive to submit estimates, I also believe that retail participation in alternative data being practically 0 doesn’t make much sense. For a provider such as Yipit selling single company data for >$20k per year, they don’t actually have any meaningful marginal cost. They simply price out retail as a byproduct of their core customer not being remotely price sensitive.
With Clarity Markets I hope to change that dynamic. As Alternative Alpha expands coverage, the goal is to get retail forecasting participation which can provide unique color to any traditional alternative data, while also providing value to retail forecasters via revenue share and free subscriptions. The goal is to produce an environment where everyone participating wins financially, while also making markets more efficient.
While currently internally funded, we are exploring fundraising towards the tail end of this year if we can successfully merge Alternative Alpha and Clarity in a way that makes sense. Funds would mostly be for additional data access to scale even further beyond current coverage, and hopefully create even more value for those of you that forecast on the platform. If you are interested or know someone who might be, feel free to reach out on Twitter or indra@clarity-markets.com.
Seperately:
While working on that, I am still quite interested in SMID cap equities especially in the current environment. CVNA and CDLX have sucked up the majority of my capital as the former has worked wonderfully and is continuing to do so, while the latter seems extremely cheap as I’ve mentioned previously.
I will still be doing SMID cap equity posts which will likely constitute the majority of this blog, just with the Clarity Markets stuff thrown in likely a couple times per quarter. An example of how that can be interesting is I’m currently doing a quick run through on HOOD 0.00%↑ as I’ve been a customer in my IRA since they released that product which has blown other providers out of the water. The AUM scaling happening there is extremely interesting and the core of the platform is their Gold offering. Clarity Markets currently has a Sponsored Market up asking for user predictions of $HOOD’s Gold Member numbers in Q2. If users do well forecasting such KPI’s it can provide additional useful color to any blog I post about HOOD, and I can share that information with readers to give them an “edge” as well.
Hopefully all of that sounds compelling and I appreciate your readership, as well of those of you who donate via paid subscriptions. I will publish more content regardless and hopefully at an accelerated pace as I’ve gotten some business ventures from 0 to 0.5, with much of the future scaling now in your hands.
Cheers.